WRITE-UP(S) 07/19/2017

Clients, sorry about the late write up as I have been on the move. Hopefully the play was DM’d/emailed to you in a timely manner. As you should already know, we are on the Houston Astros for 10* for this MLB POD. I have one other play coming that will be either a 10* or 15*, I haven’t made up my mind yet but the line value is so good here we couldn’t pass it up. The ‘Stros are without Correa obviously (for about 2 months) which will hurt, but I think the markets are overreacting. Yes Correa has been great but the Astros have the best offense in baseball because of how deep their lineup is, not purely because of how great Carlos Correa can be. To put it in perspective, the Astros’ 6 through 9 hitters in this most recent home-stand have a .380 AVG/1.139 OPS/.333AVG with RISP/11 Extra Base Hits/ 5 Home Runs. Those are just outstanding stats over the past couple of games and yes the top of the order will miss Correa, but they have bats that can fill in and they have a bottom of the order that won’t be affected by his absence. The Houston Astros have the offense with the most: Runs, Hits, Doubles, Home Runs, Total Bases, RBIs and the highest: Avg, OBP, SLG%, and OPS. Our match-up against the Seattle pitching is solid. Paxton has shown glimpses of greatness. But he hasn’t been consistent enough to worry me. He had a bounce back July where he posted a 2.33 ERA and locked down for 3 wins – zero losses. But this was all after a TERRIBLE June where he posted a 7.20 ERA while allowing opponents to hit a .324 ERA. With the way the Astros can hit from 1 through 9, I think we can put the pressure on Paxton and he will show glimpses of his June form, and he is due for a bad start.

For us, I like Charlie Morton’s ‘stuff’. He used to be a ground ball pitcher with a MAX of 93MPH but has recently developed into a pure strike out pitcher and his velocity has climed to 95/96 MPH, but still knows how to get the ground ball when needed. At home he is 5-1 with an ERA of 3.45 and is allowing a .226 Average (really good numbers). Lefties are only hitting a .187 average which is great to see because some of the Mariners’ best hitters (such as Gamel who is top 5 in Batting Average in the AL) are lefties so he is very capable of neutralizing this lineup. Prediction: Astros 5 Mariners 3.


WRITE UP(S) 07/19/2017

Clients, congratulations on such a great way for us to return from the All Star Break and start this week going 2-0 so far on MLB PODs hitting a nice 15* MAX PLAY on the Rockies a night ago and a 8* STANDARD POD on the Diamondbacks last night. I look for us to continue to build off of this success as I am always doing extensive research to bring you my strongest investment on that day, and just pounding the bookies with it. Again, congratulations, and I look forward to making this a big, big week.

To start of this day, I have a nice little 1* Two Team Parlay for ya’ll. We are taking Arsenal/Bayern Munchen Over 2.5 Goals Scored at (-221) and pairing that with Men’s Team USA Soccer -1 at (-285) to bring us in at a parlay of odds of just under (-104). I would never ask you to lay the juice with those plays by themselves but together we get nearly even odds and a very solid parlay. Continue reading for the breakdown of both matches.

Breakdown: In this first match that kicks off at 7:15AM EST we have Arsenal facing off against Baryern Munchen. This one is a no brainer when throwing it into this parlay because as stated before, the value isn’t there as a straight up play. But as the first leg of a two teamer the value most definitely is there. In the last three matches between these teams (twice this year, the other in 2015) Bayern Munchen beat Arsenal 5-1. Yes. Each of those three times, Bayern Munchen beat Arsenal 5-1. In the past six Bayern Munchen matches, there has been an average of 5.33 goals scored total, and in those games, Bayern Munchen has accounted for 4.16 of those goals. For the Arsenal side of the ball, in their last six matches, there has been an average of 3.33 goals scored total, with Arsenal accounting for 2.33 of those goals scored, on average that is. With both teams showing the ability to score over three goals themselves in their recent matches, paired with the recent history of the Bayern Munchen dominance over Arsenal, I do see this carrying well over our total of 2.5 goals for a predicted final score of Bayern Munchen 4-Arsenal 2.

As for our second match-up slated on this two team parlay, we are rolling with the Men’s US national soccer team to roll past El Salvador at a line of -1 for the United States. This one doesn’t require much breaking down. The match kicks off at 9PM EST right in Philly at the Lincoln Financial Field so the United States will be the designated home team in this one. This is a tail of the 35th ranked National team of the U.S. going against the 103 ranked National team in El Salvador. The United States are very unappreciated I feel, as they were actually the #22 ranked National squad before dropping some games and drawing in others due to a young team being put out on the pitch at the manager’s discretion. This time around though, they will be taking that young core that has played in most of their 2017 international games and will add the key veterans needed to step their level of play up, such as Clint Dempsey. I believe the reasoning behind their manager’s initial use of the young line-up was to gain some chemistry, and not tax their aging veterans. That being said, I think it will have payed huge dividends as the vets will be fresh and ready to go as they have been keeping form for their respective Clubs, and the young talent now has experience and chemistry. I don’t have much to say about El Salvador other than that they haven’t face near the level of competition that the USA squad has and even the few matches they had played against similar teams, they performed poorly. I see at worst, a  2-1 win in favor of the U.S. My official score prediction however, will be 3-1 U.S.A. They have too much firepower, and a strong defense paired with home field advantage and home country advantage. Best, VV.

WRITE UP(S) 07/18/2017

Clients, first off I would like to say congratulations to us for hitting our massive 15* Max Play last night with the Rockies. I look for us to build on this momentum as we are on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at (-151) for 8*. I almost made this another Max Play which shows how much I love the match up for us but I like to save the Max Plays (most of the time) for teams that are already hot and or at home. The Diamondbacks are actually on a losing streak at the moment but I believe they will turn it around very soon, hopefully for us, that day is today.

Breakdown: First off, lets start out by saying I love our match-up all together. We have Robbie Ray on the mound for us who is top 5 in the NL in ERA so far. He also seems to bring his best stuff on the road as he is 4-1 in these situations with a 1.34 ERA along with an average of over 12.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. This match-up is especially good as the Reds’ lineup seems to struggle mightily against lefties and Ray is a top 3 Lefty in the league this year. The Reds are top 6 in the NL in team batting, just behind the DBacks but when you look at them versus lefties, they drop to the bottom half in the league in overall team hitting. In terms of our hitting match-up, I see we have a nice edge in this department as well. The Diamondbacks are #8 in the league in team batting and #5 in the NL in that same department. Against right handed pitchers though (which Sal Romano is), the Diamondbacks really step it up, as they jump to #5 in the MLB and #2 in the National League in team hitting putting up a statline of: .270 AVG/.341 OBP/.459 SLG/.800 OPS. Sal Romano is also a mid to high 90’s fastball thrower and he likes to thrown it very often, especially on the first pitch which is great for us as the Diamondbacks live for fastballs. Finally, Romano is still very young. I saw him pitch against the Rockies and he had mediocre stuff along with up and down control. He only has two pitches in his arsenal at the moment, so if the Diamondbacks can time up that fast ball, it will be an early night for him.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 6 – Reds 4.

Not related to this game much if at all, but the Diamondbacks just traded for J.D. Martinez from the Detroit Tigers which shows to me that the Diamondbacks are trying to win now, not later. If the Diamondbacks don’t turn it around here, look for me to tail them in the near future with a great starting rotation and another bat to give them a solid 1-7 in the lineup, which is always deadly especially the second and third time through the order.Diamonds

WRITE UP(S) 07/17/2017

  • Pick: Colorado Rockies ML (-165 to -170) for 10units.  (WRITE UP EDITED AT 4:45PM EST 07/17/2017) Team, I am officially upgrading this play to a 15unit max play.

Clients, I hope you enjoy this new write-up system as it will be updated daily and I feel will be much more convenient for all of us. I am trying to get all of us to take advantage of this overnight line, it started at (-165) but as I continue to unload (can only go $1000 at a time every 10-15 minutes due to low overnight limits) the line continues to move up as predicted. All that being said, lets move to the breakdown of this play.

Breakdown: The Colorado Rockies are a team, much like I said about the Brewers the other night (who won by the way) that I have been following almost the entire season, and I have had a pretty good read on them during that same span. I have had a good read on when they will go cold and when they will get hot. This team just had 18 hits to score 13 runs and got the win off of Mets’ youngster Steven Matz @ Citi Field which is impressive because they usually aren’t AS strong away from home and I believe Matz has some really good stuff and is an under the radar guy that will be lights out with another full year under his belt. The Rockies’ usually suspects got it going (Nolan Arenado had a homer, and Charlie Blackmon had an inside the park homer) which is a great sight to see as they head back home to take on the Padres. Last series at Coors against the Padres the Rockies went 1-2, dropping the series. But before that, they had 7 straight wins at home against them and I expect a similar result here. We don’t have Richard, Chacin, or the youngster Lamet to worry about here. We have Perdomo on the mound against us which really works in our favor. The guy has mediocre stuff at best. He is 4-4 this year but just 1-4 on the Road. He also hasn’t pitched since July 5th (11 days, more than double the amount of normal rest for a starter) so I expect a lot of rust which NEVER bodes well against this Rockies’ lineup, especially at Coors. In Night games, Perdomo has had a 5.17 ERA, and in the Month of July so far, has allowed batters an astonishing .409 Average. The more I look at his stats the more ashamed I am that he is a Major Leauge starter. Yes, it is for the lowly Padres, but still. We are talking about with 2 outs, a 5.48 ERA this year. 2 outs is supposed to be your bread an butter. You are supposed to be feeling good. But he just finds ways to give up runs. When he falls behind in the count (which I think will happen a lot tomorrow night against our Rockies) he is allowing a 6.45 ERA. The reason why these things matter is because the Rockies are 5th in team batting in the league and 3rd in the NL, which is all I need to say regarding their offense. Not to mention, the Rockies’ really like hitting rightys and they do it very well. As far as our pitching match-up against their “batters” if that’s what you want to call them, I like it a lot. We have Marquez who all we need him to be is decent since our hitting match-up is so good against the Padres’ starter. If he can hold the Padres to no more than 3 or 4 I see this being an easy win. Marquez is 6-4 so far. (3-2 split both away and at home). Marquez in similar situations has posted a 4.68 ERA which is better than what we just looked at from Perdomo. Additionally, the Rockies are very sound defensively. They rank 3rd in all of MLB and 2nd in the NL in team defense. All these things, combined with the Padres being the WORST, and I mean DEAD LAST in team batting this year, really makes me feel like this is the best spot for the Rockies to start their 2H home opener seeing they face a more difficult match-ups the following two match-ups against Lamet and Richard. Best of luck on this MLB Play Of The Day.