Clients, sorry about the late write up as I have been on the move. Hopefully the play was DM’d/emailed to you in a timely manner. As you should already know, we are on the Houston Astros for 10* for this MLB POD. I have one other play coming that will be either a 10* or 15*, I haven’t made up my mind yet but the line value is so good here we couldn’t pass it up. The ‘Stros are without Correa obviously (for about 2 months) which will hurt, but I think the markets are overreacting. Yes Correa has been great but the Astros have the best offense in baseball because of how deep their lineup is, not purely because of how great Carlos Correa can be. To put it in perspective, the Astros’ 6 through 9 hitters in this most recent home-stand have a .380 AVG/1.139 OPS/.333AVG with RISP/11 Extra Base Hits/ 5 Home Runs. Those are just outstanding stats over the past couple of games and yes the top of the order will miss Correa, but they have bats that can fill in and they have a bottom of the order that won’t be affected by his absence. The Houston Astros have the offense with the most: Runs, Hits, Doubles, Home Runs, Total Bases, RBIs and the highest: Avg, OBP, SLG%, and OPS. Our match-up against the Seattle pitching is solid. Paxton has shown glimpses of greatness. But he hasn’t been consistent enough to worry me. He had a bounce back July where he posted a 2.33 ERA and locked down for 3 wins – zero losses. But this was all after a TERRIBLE June where he posted a 7.20 ERA while allowing opponents to hit a .324 ERA. With the way the Astros can hit from 1 through 9, I think we can put the pressure on Paxton and he will show glimpses of his June form, and he is due for a bad start.
For us, I like Charlie Morton’s ‘stuff’. He used to be a ground ball pitcher with a MAX of 93MPH but has recently developed into a pure strike out pitcher and his velocity has climed to 95/96 MPH, but still knows how to get the ground ball when needed. At home he is 5-1 with an ERA of 3.45 and is allowing a .226 Average (really good numbers). Lefties are only hitting a .187 average which is great to see because some of the Mariners’ best hitters (such as Gamel who is top 5 in Batting Average in the AL) are lefties so he is very capable of neutralizing this lineup. Prediction: Astros 5 Mariners 3.