Welcome back Clients! It’s been a while since we had a play worth a write-up, and it’s a +money dog! I feel like we are getting excellent value in this play and I will have the details for a 7 team 1u (+4080) parlay that kicks off tonight as well. Without further ado, lets get this thing rolling.
Winning Pick: Texas Rangers ML (+118)
Breakdown: The Texas Rangers are on the road tonight and I personally feel they shouldn’t be the dog in this one. Lets do a few statistical comparisons between Texas and their opponents, the Minnesota Twins. In night games, Texas is 6th in the league overall in ESPN’s ‘team batting’ statistics, where Minnesota is 28th. Their slugging percentage in the same situations are good for 14th in the league at .427 opposed to Minnesota’s .406 slugging %, good for 23rd in baseball. Texas is also 6th in all of baseball in Base on Balls in night games, where as Minnesota is 22nd (a +40 margin for our Rangers). In these same ‘night game’ situations, Texas is 5th in Stolen bases and Minnesota is 18th (+19 margin). One stat in particular that really jumps out at me in these situations is each team’s extra base hits. Texas is 6th with 245, and Minnesota is 30th (dead last) with only 182. Texas is just an all around much better hitting ball club and I think we have a good match-up against Meija who is just 4-4 in his Career with a 4.17 ERA. At home he actually gets worse with a 2-3 record & a 4.91 ERA. In those home starts. teams are hitting .286 with more than 50% of his hits given up, going for runs. He also posts a very unimpressive 2-1 Strikeout to Walk ratio which is not good if you consider Texas’ lineup is filled with batters who can get on base via WALK. I just don’t think he is in a good spot against this dangerous Texas lineup. As for us, and the ONLY reason I think we are the dog tonight is because our pitcher A.J. Griffin is pitching his first game coming off a stint on the DL. I’m not worried though as he has looked good in some warm-up games. He should be ready to go and a healthy A.J. Griffin is better than a healthy Adalberto Meija any day of the weak (to me at least). Griffin has been a stellar started since his rookie season where he posted a 7-1 record and a 3.06 ERA with the A’s. He has a career record of 32-17 and a 4.19 ERA to go along with those numbers. He has been better on the road this year than at home which works nicely for us, as his ERA is a full 2.65 points better in Road starts. On the road, opponents are hitting .233 and he has a very solid 1.11 WHIP (which shows he doesn’t give up a lot of base runners). Griffin has also been much better on grass than on turf this year, and tonight should be no different on the Kentucky Bluegrass at Target Field. My feeling is we have the better lineup with the better pitcher tonight. I honestly think we should be a minimum of a (-125) favorite, and so I will take the dog (+118) value.
Prediction: Texas Rangers 8 – Minnesota Twins 5
7 Team Parlay Screenshot Has Been Sent To Clients. No need for a write up. Lets not jinx this one by sharing it with everyone else.
TRENDS FOR THIS GAME:
SINCE 2012, RANGERS ARE 257-228 FOLLOWING A WIN (53% win rate)
SINCE 2012, TWINS ARE 177-216 FOLLOWING A WIN (45% win rate). Worst % in MLB
SINCE 2012, RANGERS HAVE THE 2nd BEST WIN % AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
SINCE 2012, TWINS HAVE THE 2nd WORST WIN % AS A HOME FAVORITE
SINCE 2012, RANGERS ARE 5th IN WIN % OFF OF NO REST (53.6% WIN)
SINCE 2012, TWINS ARE WORST IN MLB IN WIN % OFF OF NO REST (43.4% WIN)
SINCE 2012, RANGERS HAVE 3rd BEST WIN % ON THE ROAD (50.6%)
SINCE 2012, TWINS ARE LAST IN WIN % AT HOME (42.9%)