WRITE-UP(S) 07/25/2017

Clients, it has been a great run and I am not looking to end it anytime soon. We continued our recent success by cashing all three ‘System Plays’ and hit our 20* MLB Pick of The Day easily with the Diamondbacks -1.5 in an 8 run route. I don’t have a single ‘System Play’ for today as the numbers just weren’t looking strong. However, I have had my eye on a certain pitcher for a while waiting for the right situation and opportunity; Needless to say it has produced us a top-rated 25* MLB Game Of The Week that I believe WILL cash soundly.

Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-118) with Madison Bumgarner (Listed) and James Taillon as (Action) meaning not listed. Risking 29.5 units to win 25 units ***MLB PLAY OF THE WEEK***

Breakdown: I have always been of tailing Madison Bumgarner at home. I never like playing on the road just because there are certain teams you don’t play on the road, the Giants for me, are that team. But here they are at AT&T park in front of their home crowd that is ALWAYS electric, proven by the fact that they most recently had the longest streak in National League history of having consecutive 530 SELL OUT crowds, a streak that lasted from October 1, 2010 until July 9, 2017. With the Giant’s ace and really their only consistent pitcher over the years to be taking the mound tonight, I believe it will be a loud and rowdy crowd for our home favorites.

Defensively, as mentioned, we have MadBum taking the mound. He is still win-less this year with a record of 0-4 and a 3.57 ERA. These numbers don’t scare me as MadBum has a career record of 100-71 and an even 3.00 ERA throughout that span. He has posted a 48-32 record at home (60% win rate) to go along with a 2.78 ER,  9.3Ks per 9innings and opponents hitting .226 in these situations. Bumgarner has also been stronger in the 2nd Half of the Season than the 1st Half as evident by the fact that his: Strikeouts per walk, Strikeouts per 9 innings, Batting Average Against, ERA, Win Percentage, and OBP numbers are all better in the latter half of the season. MadBum will be backed by a team that is Top 10 (number 9) in Major League Baseball in limiting the amount of errors they have had all season. Madison’s only problem has been giving up the long ball as he has allowed 7 runs in just over 13 innings (all by way of home run). This shouldn’t be a problem for him tonight though, as the Pirates are second to last in all of baseball in terms of the amount of home runs they have had this season.

Offensively, we have a decent match-up with James Tallion from the Pirates. He hasn’t been able to pitch deep into games though, as he has failed to complete 6 innings in all three of his starts this month, and he struggles slightly having to use 116 pitches to get through just 5 and 1/3 innings. Of his last 5 outings he has only reached the 7th inning once and in 4 of those 5 games was used for more than 100 pitches. For a young guy, I think his arm will be showing some signs of fatigue and the hungry Giant’s batters will look to catch fire. Despite the Giant’s offensive struggles this season, they will be in the hitter friendly confines of their home stadium and I do believe with MadBum taking the mound, the Giants will be looking to catch fire. Vegas must believe so as well, as the Giants are the favorites in a game I thought they might be the under dog in considering how good the Pirates have been playing. I think the public will be all over the Pirates at plus-money based on that statement I just issued, but I think Vegas is comfortable having the Giants as a favorite to bring in more money on the the Pirates and straight rake in that cash!

Prediction: San Francisco Giants 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates 4.

I think Bumgarner turns in 7 solid innings only allowing 2 Earned Runs and Ks a minimum of 6 batters. Giants should be leading 6-2 by that point as I do believe their bats will get it going, and their relievers come in and they will concede a couple of runs late but the Giants will respond off of a solo homer in the 8th to make it 7-4 and solidify the win, putting an end to the Pirates last second efforts.

 

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