WRITE-UP(S) 07/25/2017

Clients, it has been a great run and I am not looking to end it anytime soon. We continued our recent success by cashing all three ‘System Plays’ and hit our 20* MLB Pick of The Day easily with the Diamondbacks -1.5 in an 8 run route. I don’t have a single ‘System Play’ for today as the numbers just weren’t looking strong. However, I have had my eye on a certain pitcher for a while waiting for the right situation and opportunity; Needless to say it has produced us a top-rated 25* MLB Game Of The Week that I believe WILL cash soundly.

Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-118) with Madison Bumgarner (Listed) and James Taillon as (Action) meaning not listed. Risking 29.5 units to win 25 units ***MLB PLAY OF THE WEEK***

Breakdown: I have always been of tailing Madison Bumgarner at home. I never like playing on the road just because there are certain teams you don’t play on the road, the Giants for me, are that team. But here they are at AT&T park in front of their home crowd that is ALWAYS electric, proven by the fact that they most recently had the longest streak in National League history of having consecutive 530 SELL OUT crowds, a streak that lasted from October 1, 2010 until July 9, 2017. With the Giant’s ace and really their only consistent pitcher over the years to be taking the mound tonight, I believe it will be a loud and rowdy crowd for our home favorites.

Defensively, as mentioned, we have MadBum taking the mound. He is still win-less this year with a record of 0-4 and a 3.57 ERA. These numbers don’t scare me as MadBum has a career record of 100-71 and an even 3.00 ERA throughout that span. He has posted a 48-32 record at home (60% win rate) to go along with a 2.78 ER,  9.3Ks per 9innings and opponents hitting .226 in these situations. Bumgarner has also been stronger in the 2nd Half of the Season than the 1st Half as evident by the fact that his: Strikeouts per walk, Strikeouts per 9 innings, Batting Average Against, ERA, Win Percentage, and OBP numbers are all better in the latter half of the season. MadBum will be backed by a team that is Top 10 (number 9) in Major League Baseball in limiting the amount of errors they have had all season. Madison’s only problem has been giving up the long ball as he has allowed 7 runs in just over 13 innings (all by way of home run). This shouldn’t be a problem for him tonight though, as the Pirates are second to last in all of baseball in terms of the amount of home runs they have had this season.

Offensively, we have a decent match-up with James Tallion from the Pirates. He hasn’t been able to pitch deep into games though, as he has failed to complete 6 innings in all three of his starts this month, and he struggles slightly having to use 116 pitches to get through just 5 and 1/3 innings. Of his last 5 outings he has only reached the 7th inning once and in 4 of those 5 games was used for more than 100 pitches. For a young guy, I think his arm will be showing some signs of fatigue and the hungry Giant’s batters will look to catch fire. Despite the Giant’s offensive struggles this season, they will be in the hitter friendly confines of their home stadium and I do believe with MadBum taking the mound, the Giants will be looking to catch fire. Vegas must believe so as well, as the Giants are the favorites in a game I thought they might be the under dog in considering how good the Pirates have been playing. I think the public will be all over the Pirates at plus-money based on that statement I just issued, but I think Vegas is comfortable having the Giants as a favorite to bring in more money on the the Pirates and straight rake in that cash!

Prediction: San Francisco Giants 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates 4.

I think Bumgarner turns in 7 solid innings only allowing 2 Earned Runs and Ks a minimum of 6 batters. Giants should be leading 6-2 by that point as I do believe their bats will get it going, and their relievers come in and they will concede a couple of runs late but the Giants will respond off of a solo homer in the 8th to make it 7-4 and solidify the win, putting an end to the Pirates last second efforts.

 

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WRITE-UP(S) 07/24/2017

Congratulation Client’s and trial members as we hit our 25* Soccer Play Of The Year yesterday to go along with our 20* MLB Play Of The Day winner. I look to continue that success and start us out on the right foot with another 20* MLB BOMB tonight. For the winner along with the breakdown, just continue reading. I’ll be waiting at the cashier to congratulate you tomorrow.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line

Breakdown: I always love a good narrative, and this game is no different. J.D. Martinez will be starting in his first home game since being traded to the Diamondbacks. His first game with them didn’t go expected when they had a showdown with the Cincinnati Reds and was hit on the knuckle by a pitch in his first at-bat and had to leave the game. Needless to say, after watching his batting practice this afternoon, I don’t think that hand will be an issue hitting or fielding. Another thing we saw happen in the very same game Martinez was injured, a not so elite performance from our guy tonight, Zack Grienke.

I have always loved tailing a team when Grienke is on the mound and I wasn’t too shy to do so last time. Although, in the last outing we got burned as Martinez’s early dismissal sucked the energy out of the  Diamondback’s offense and instead gave the Reds some hope. That hope sparked a good offensive performance from the Reds as they were able to get a lead off base runner in every inning Zack pitched. Those hits, mixed with insufficient run support for Grienke, and it wasn’t the result we wanted. I see a different story tonight. Grienke will be back in his home ball park where his numbers are immensely better (9-0 2.41 ERA @Home vs 2-4 3.75 ERA on the road).  To pair with those excellent Home numbers for Zack, he also seems to prefer night games vs day games as he has posted a 2.72 ERA in night games (a full 2 runs better than his day game numbers). Opponents are only hitting a .192 Average against him when he is in Arizona, and its worth noting that despite Grienke’s poor outing last time, only lasting 5 innings, he is still in the top 5 in the National League in ERA and is averaging about 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. One thing I really like about Grienke is his composure. With runners on both 2nd and 3rd, he has still maintained a 0.00 ERA more than halfway through the season (in part because he doesn’t get himself in those situations, and when he does, he works efficiently to get himself out of them). The Braves are a team I always look to fade on the road, so I am glad we get such a good pitcher on the mound for us backed by a stout lineup, something I can’t say about Atlanta. The Atlanta Braves are 18th in the league in ‘team batting’, and they really don’t hit rightys well (which Grineke is). Against right handed pitchers, the Braves have the 2nd worst strikeout percentage at 22.7% of at-bats resulting in a K, which is never a good equation with a strikeout artist in Zack Grienke. The Braves are also bottom 5 in the MLB in terms of Base on Balls, so with a high strikeout rate and a low amount of base on balls, the Atlanta Braves will really have to earn each and every hit/run.

Our offense shouldn’t have any problems tonight folks. Robert Allen Dickey (yes, R.A. Dickey) is on the mound for the Atlanta Braves who is win less since June 24th (exactly one month ago). The knuckle-ball specialist is now 42 years old and is lucky his knuckle ball has been decent from him because his other pitches are HORRID. Dickey throws 86.4% knuckle-balls/12.95% fastballs and then will very rarely throw a curve-ball but has one if needed, that he throws at about a 1% rate. The average pitcher throws about 52% fastballs and a mixture of other pitches like curves, change-ups, sliders, etc. This is where Dickey’s approach is flawed. I understand the movement on the knuckle pitch is very strong, but when you throw that pitch over 86% of the time, it allows hitters to not even worry about timing the fastball and instead they can get the timing of the knuckle-ball down. Once you get the timing down, it is all about making contact and putting the ball in play. I have never backed Dickey in my life and I don’t think I ever will. If you want my very strong opinion on him, I don’t think he should be a Major League pitcher anymore. His knuckler isn’t what it used to be, he needs to retire or go to the bullpen and be a closer. Rant over, back to the statistics and facts. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 6th in all of baseball in terms of ‘team hitting’ statistics overall, good for 4th in the National League. They have good (low) strike-out rates against right handed pitcheds and a top 5 on base percentage in the same situations (these are all numbers without the addition of J.D. Martinez). I think the new bat with Martinez and him making his first home start will give this team the extra juice to beat the Braves handily, much like the Indians did for us yesterday.

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 6 – Braves 2

Things to consider for tonight’s game:

There was a study done a couple years ago that showed R.A. Dickey’s Knuckle-ball performs better with a closed dome opposed to an open dome or non-dome stadium. Tonight’s ball park will be all sunny skies with a slight wind as the Diamondbacks will have their roof open. Not ideal conditions for a Dickey special.

Diamondbacks have the 2nd best Home win % in the National League, only behind the 1st place Dodgers.

 

 

WRITE UP(S) 07/23/2017

Clients, lets get right to it on why the Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+105) is going to be our MASSIVE 20* MLB POD.

Quite Simple Breakdown Here:

Kluber is a very dominant strikeout pitcher who is still looking for his first win of July after receiving a loss to the Padres on July 4th and two no decisions against the Tigers and A’s in his following starts. So far this month, Kluber has a 2.22 ERA and has had a 2.86 ERA all season (good for 2nd in AL/ 5th in MLB). Kluber also seems to fair well during Home games (2.54 ERA) and Day Games (2.43 ERA). Kluber does very well of limiting the long ball as he is top 5 in the AL in Home runs per 9 innings (less than 1 per 9 innings). He is also 3rd in the AL in Ks per BOB at just over 5.5 punch outs per walk. As we dig deeper we find more impressive and compelling arguments for Kluber, such as the fact that he is second in the entire league in shutouts, only behind Ervin Santana who has one more than him (3). He only gives up about 6.5 hits per 9 (good for second in the AL), along with his impressive 12.07 strikeouts per 9 innings (good for third in all of baseball). Toronto also has the ability to hurt themselves as they have two guys  in the top 10 in ‘Double Plays Grounded Into’ including the league leading 17 from Kendrys Morales. One thing some may point out is the fact that Jose Bautista is second in base on balls, but I think that has more to do with being pitched around opposed to him earning those walks because he is also top 10 in strikeouts. Kluber will also have a good defense behind him as the Cleveland Indians are top 10 in team fielding statistics overall, and 4th in the American League. The Blue Jays as a team haven’t met Kluber yet, which is always an edge for the pitcher, so I expect everything to be working in our favor, as far as the pitching match up is concerned. 

Now as far as our hitting match-up is concerned, official lineups aren’t out yet as this is an early line we are jumping on. What we can look at, though, is team stats and the opposing pitcher: J.A. Happ. Happ has a 3.55 ERA this year, and a lifetime 3.96 ERA. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but certainly aren’t strong. They only get worse from here. Happ’s career numbers on the road aren’t impressive: 4.23 ERA/ .256 Batt Avg/ .321 OBP/ .422 SLG. These aren’t encouraging numbers for the lefty considering the Cleveland Indians are ranked second in baseball at hitting off of left handed pitchers. They are putting up impressive numbers against lefties such as their league leading .272 Average, and are top 5 in each of their following categories: OBP/OPS/HomeRun%/BaseOnBalls%/Strikeout%. The Indians have two top 10 guys in terms of Base On Balls (Ramirez and Encarnacion), Ramirez also has provided the Indians with a top bat in the AL as he has been top 5 in AVG/RBIs/SLG% halfway through the season. I think it is also worth noting that the Toronto Blue Jays have been mediocre at best in terms of defense, as they fall below the middle of the pack, ranked at the #21 spot in the league. I like this spot a lot for the Indians and think we are getting great value. Look for the Indians to build off of their 13-3 win that opened this series and the Lindor walk off homer that won the game for them last night. Cleveland will be looking to sweep with their Ace (a top 4 or 5 arm in all of baseball) and Toronto will be caught looking ahead as they just want to end this road trip and get home tomorrow night to face the A’s.

A few trends that are also working for us:

  • Toronto has only won 39% of games as a road underdog this season.
  • Since 2016 the Indians are in the Top 5 in winning % following a win.
  • In this series, the Indians have outscored the Blue Jays by an average of 5.5 Runs Per Game, and have out hit the Blue Jays by an average of 4.5 hits per game. 

Kluber (Listed) vs Happ (Listed) Cleveland Indians RL -1.5 (+105) 20*

WRITE-UP(S) 07/21/2017

Clients, lets keep this one short and simple because we have had some bad luck as of late, and I believe this 20* Play Of The Week is a gem. 20* POW’s are hitting at over a 78% rate YTD, this will only increase that rate.

20* Winner: Texas Rangers ML (-124) Yu Darvish (Listed,) Alex Cobb (Action)

Breakdown: On the mound for us tonight is Ranger’s #1 arm in Yu Darvish. Although he hasn’t quite returned to what most remember him by when he placed 2nd in the Cy Young race in 2013, I’ve seen a lot of good things from him. His last start against Kansas City, he only allowed 2 Earned Runs through 6 and two thirds. Also worth mentioning, is Darvish’s career numbers against the Rays: 4-0 in 5 starts with a 1.09 ERA and is averaging about 11K’s per 9 innings in those 5 contests. I’m not one to root for injuries but we were blessed in this one because as we all know, Colby Rasmus (one of the Ray’s best fielders and bats) has stepped away from baseball for a bit and won’t be back anytime soon. The reason I bring that up is because Rasmus has had Darvish’s number ever since they first faced off. Rasmus has posted a .471 average/1.350 OPS/.526 OBP, his batting average and OPS against Darvish have all been career highs for Rasmus out of all qualified pitchers he has faced. If there were one guy I would not want to be in the opposing line up, it’s that guy, and thankfully for us, he isn’t. Another ‘throw in’ statistic to think about is the fact that the Ranger’s defense has been fairly solid all year as they are a Top 10 team as far as team fielding is concerned.

Our hitting match-up isn’t bad either. The Texas lineup is 8th in baseball in overall ‘Team Batting’ statistics (3rd in the AL). We have two top 10 home run hitters in our line up with #8 Gallo and #9 Napoli, but the great thing is that Napoli hits #5 and Gallo is the #9 which just shows how great of an overall hitting ball club this is. Alex Cobb, the pitcher for the Rays tonight has had a solid year thus far but he relies on an underwhelming fastball with pin point precision. If his control is off though, he is liable to give up walks, and runs at a big pace.

Prediction: Texas Rangers 7 – Tampa Bay Rays 2

WRITE-UP(S) 07/19/2017

Clients, tonight’s 15* MAX PLAY OF THE DAY has been confirmed and we are on the Arizona Diamondbacks. I tried to grab the line at -155 but got confirmation late and got the (-161) line. That won’t stop me from jumping all over this one, and you will see why if you continue reading.

Breakdown: I have been high on the Diamondbacks all year. They have one of the most underrated pitching staffs in the game, top to bottom, and their ace, Zack Greinke will be on the mound for us in this one. Greinke is 11-4 so far, with an ERA of  2.86. He is allowing opponents to hit a .216 AVG. Even when he falls behind in the count, he only is allowing a .250 AVG and when he is able to work ahead in the count the opponent’s batting average drops to .174. Elite, top 5 stuff. Lefties are hitting .206 and right handed hitters are hitting .226 so he can definitely handle batters on either side of the plate. Greinke is coming off of a good June (3-1, with a 2.70 ERA and opponents hitting .241 against him), but it doesn’t stop there as Zack has been able to elevate his game even higher so far in July as he has built a 2-0 record in two games, while allowing batters to hit .147 and giving up just a 1.29 ERA. I don’t expect anything different from him in this one as Cincinnati is a middle of the back kind of team offensively. They have a speedy lead off guy in Billy Hamilton who leads the league in stolen bases, but other than that, their team speed is mediocre/average at best. If we keep Hamilton off the bases, they don’t have any real threats speed wise. Which should keep the Reds’ run total to a minimum. Not to mention the Dbacks just added J.D. Martinez from the Tigers in the outfield and will really solidify the outer three as we will have speedy guys with strong arms to keep extra base hits down as well (Pollock, Peralta, Martinez), and our infield is even better with Lamb, Goldschmidt, and Owings to help us turn some double plays when need be and keep those ground balls from getting into the outfield. As a side note, we saw Ray struggle on the mound but he was still able to hold the Reds to just two runs, which isn’t a good sign for the Reds considering Grienke is on a tear recently and has been solid all year with no real terrible performances.

As far as our hitting match-up, I think we have a really good one. The Diamondbacks just hung 11 for us last night, and I think they can have a pretty similar outing tonight. On the mound for the Reds is Tim Adleman. Adleman doesn’t have overpowering stuff, fastball velocity is right around 90MPH, and his control has been an issue. At home he is 4-3, but has allowed opponents to pile up a 5.09 ERA in those same games. So far in July, Adleman is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA and opponents are hitting .311 off of him! Not to mention, since the All Star Break, he has gone 0-1, with a 10.38 ERA and opponents are hitting .350. He gave up 3 homers in his last time out, and when ahead in the count he often struggled to punch people out as we saw when he walked Bryce Harper by throwing 4 straight balls after getting ahead 0-2. As stated before, the Diamondbacks hung 11 last night and just made their offense even better with the addition of J.D. I don’t see this game playing out any other way for a hungry team like the Diamondbacks with a powerful lineup that has solid team speed, and an ace on the mound. My official prediction for this game is Diamondbacks 8 – Reds 3!

Best, VV.

WRITE-UP(S) 07/19/2017

Clients, sorry about the late write up as I have been on the move. Hopefully the play was DM’d/emailed to you in a timely manner. As you should already know, we are on the Houston Astros for 10* for this MLB POD. I have one other play coming that will be either a 10* or 15*, I haven’t made up my mind yet but the line value is so good here we couldn’t pass it up. The ‘Stros are without Correa obviously (for about 2 months) which will hurt, but I think the markets are overreacting. Yes Correa has been great but the Astros have the best offense in baseball because of how deep their lineup is, not purely because of how great Carlos Correa can be. To put it in perspective, the Astros’ 6 through 9 hitters in this most recent home-stand have a .380 AVG/1.139 OPS/.333AVG with RISP/11 Extra Base Hits/ 5 Home Runs. Those are just outstanding stats over the past couple of games and yes the top of the order will miss Correa, but they have bats that can fill in and they have a bottom of the order that won’t be affected by his absence. The Houston Astros have the offense with the most: Runs, Hits, Doubles, Home Runs, Total Bases, RBIs and the highest: Avg, OBP, SLG%, and OPS. Our match-up against the Seattle pitching is solid. Paxton has shown glimpses of greatness. But he hasn’t been consistent enough to worry me. He had a bounce back July where he posted a 2.33 ERA and locked down for 3 wins – zero losses. But this was all after a TERRIBLE June where he posted a 7.20 ERA while allowing opponents to hit a .324 ERA. With the way the Astros can hit from 1 through 9, I think we can put the pressure on Paxton and he will show glimpses of his June form, and he is due for a bad start.

For us, I like Charlie Morton’s ‘stuff’. He used to be a ground ball pitcher with a MAX of 93MPH but has recently developed into a pure strike out pitcher and his velocity has climed to 95/96 MPH, but still knows how to get the ground ball when needed. At home he is 5-1 with an ERA of 3.45 and is allowing a .226 Average (really good numbers). Lefties are only hitting a .187 average which is great to see because some of the Mariners’ best hitters (such as Gamel who is top 5 in Batting Average in the AL) are lefties so he is very capable of neutralizing this lineup. Prediction: Astros 5 Mariners 3.

WRITE UP(S) 07/19/2017

Clients, congratulations on such a great way for us to return from the All Star Break and start this week going 2-0 so far on MLB PODs hitting a nice 15* MAX PLAY on the Rockies a night ago and a 8* STANDARD POD on the Diamondbacks last night. I look for us to continue to build off of this success as I am always doing extensive research to bring you my strongest investment on that day, and just pounding the bookies with it. Again, congratulations, and I look forward to making this a big, big week.

To start of this day, I have a nice little 1* Two Team Parlay for ya’ll. We are taking Arsenal/Bayern Munchen Over 2.5 Goals Scored at (-221) and pairing that with Men’s Team USA Soccer -1 at (-285) to bring us in at a parlay of odds of just under (-104). I would never ask you to lay the juice with those plays by themselves but together we get nearly even odds and a very solid parlay. Continue reading for the breakdown of both matches.

Breakdown: In this first match that kicks off at 7:15AM EST we have Arsenal facing off against Baryern Munchen. This one is a no brainer when throwing it into this parlay because as stated before, the value isn’t there as a straight up play. But as the first leg of a two teamer the value most definitely is there. In the last three matches between these teams (twice this year, the other in 2015) Bayern Munchen beat Arsenal 5-1. Yes. Each of those three times, Bayern Munchen beat Arsenal 5-1. In the past six Bayern Munchen matches, there has been an average of 5.33 goals scored total, and in those games, Bayern Munchen has accounted for 4.16 of those goals. For the Arsenal side of the ball, in their last six matches, there has been an average of 3.33 goals scored total, with Arsenal accounting for 2.33 of those goals scored, on average that is. With both teams showing the ability to score over three goals themselves in their recent matches, paired with the recent history of the Bayern Munchen dominance over Arsenal, I do see this carrying well over our total of 2.5 goals for a predicted final score of Bayern Munchen 4-Arsenal 2.

As for our second match-up slated on this two team parlay, we are rolling with the Men’s US national soccer team to roll past El Salvador at a line of -1 for the United States. This one doesn’t require much breaking down. The match kicks off at 9PM EST right in Philly at the Lincoln Financial Field so the United States will be the designated home team in this one. This is a tail of the 35th ranked National team of the U.S. going against the 103 ranked National team in El Salvador. The United States are very unappreciated I feel, as they were actually the #22 ranked National squad before dropping some games and drawing in others due to a young team being put out on the pitch at the manager’s discretion. This time around though, they will be taking that young core that has played in most of their 2017 international games and will add the key veterans needed to step their level of play up, such as Clint Dempsey. I believe the reasoning behind their manager’s initial use of the young line-up was to gain some chemistry, and not tax their aging veterans. That being said, I think it will have payed huge dividends as the vets will be fresh and ready to go as they have been keeping form for their respective Clubs, and the young talent now has experience and chemistry. I don’t have much to say about El Salvador other than that they haven’t face near the level of competition that the USA squad has and even the few matches they had played against similar teams, they performed poorly. I see at worst, a  2-1 win in favor of the U.S. My official score prediction however, will be 3-1 U.S.A. They have too much firepower, and a strong defense paired with home field advantage and home country advantage. Best, VV.

WRITE UP(S) 07/18/2017

Clients, first off I would like to say congratulations to us for hitting our massive 15* Max Play last night with the Rockies. I look for us to build on this momentum as we are on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at (-151) for 8*. I almost made this another Max Play which shows how much I love the match up for us but I like to save the Max Plays (most of the time) for teams that are already hot and or at home. The Diamondbacks are actually on a losing streak at the moment but I believe they will turn it around very soon, hopefully for us, that day is today.

Breakdown: First off, lets start out by saying I love our match-up all together. We have Robbie Ray on the mound for us who is top 5 in the NL in ERA so far. He also seems to bring his best stuff on the road as he is 4-1 in these situations with a 1.34 ERA along with an average of over 12.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. This match-up is especially good as the Reds’ lineup seems to struggle mightily against lefties and Ray is a top 3 Lefty in the league this year. The Reds are top 6 in the NL in team batting, just behind the DBacks but when you look at them versus lefties, they drop to the bottom half in the league in overall team hitting. In terms of our hitting match-up, I see we have a nice edge in this department as well. The Diamondbacks are #8 in the league in team batting and #5 in the NL in that same department. Against right handed pitchers though (which Sal Romano is), the Diamondbacks really step it up, as they jump to #5 in the MLB and #2 in the National League in team hitting putting up a statline of: .270 AVG/.341 OBP/.459 SLG/.800 OPS. Sal Romano is also a mid to high 90’s fastball thrower and he likes to thrown it very often, especially on the first pitch which is great for us as the Diamondbacks live for fastballs. Finally, Romano is still very young. I saw him pitch against the Rockies and he had mediocre stuff along with up and down control. He only has two pitches in his arsenal at the moment, so if the Diamondbacks can time up that fast ball, it will be an early night for him.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 6 – Reds 4.

Not related to this game much if at all, but the Diamondbacks just traded for J.D. Martinez from the Detroit Tigers which shows to me that the Diamondbacks are trying to win now, not later. If the Diamondbacks don’t turn it around here, look for me to tail them in the near future with a great starting rotation and another bat to give them a solid 1-7 in the lineup, which is always deadly especially the second and third time through the order.Diamonds

WRITE UP(S) 07/17/2017

  • Pick: Colorado Rockies ML (-165 to -170) for 10units.  (WRITE UP EDITED AT 4:45PM EST 07/17/2017) Team, I am officially upgrading this play to a 15unit max play.

Clients, I hope you enjoy this new write-up system as it will be updated daily and I feel will be much more convenient for all of us. I am trying to get all of us to take advantage of this overnight line, it started at (-165) but as I continue to unload (can only go $1000 at a time every 10-15 minutes due to low overnight limits) the line continues to move up as predicted. All that being said, lets move to the breakdown of this play.

Breakdown: The Colorado Rockies are a team, much like I said about the Brewers the other night (who won by the way) that I have been following almost the entire season, and I have had a pretty good read on them during that same span. I have had a good read on when they will go cold and when they will get hot. This team just had 18 hits to score 13 runs and got the win off of Mets’ youngster Steven Matz @ Citi Field which is impressive because they usually aren’t AS strong away from home and I believe Matz has some really good stuff and is an under the radar guy that will be lights out with another full year under his belt. The Rockies’ usually suspects got it going (Nolan Arenado had a homer, and Charlie Blackmon had an inside the park homer) which is a great sight to see as they head back home to take on the Padres. Last series at Coors against the Padres the Rockies went 1-2, dropping the series. But before that, they had 7 straight wins at home against them and I expect a similar result here. We don’t have Richard, Chacin, or the youngster Lamet to worry about here. We have Perdomo on the mound against us which really works in our favor. The guy has mediocre stuff at best. He is 4-4 this year but just 1-4 on the Road. He also hasn’t pitched since July 5th (11 days, more than double the amount of normal rest for a starter) so I expect a lot of rust which NEVER bodes well against this Rockies’ lineup, especially at Coors. In Night games, Perdomo has had a 5.17 ERA, and in the Month of July so far, has allowed batters an astonishing .409 Average. The more I look at his stats the more ashamed I am that he is a Major Leauge starter. Yes, it is for the lowly Padres, but still. We are talking about with 2 outs, a 5.48 ERA this year. 2 outs is supposed to be your bread an butter. You are supposed to be feeling good. But he just finds ways to give up runs. When he falls behind in the count (which I think will happen a lot tomorrow night against our Rockies) he is allowing a 6.45 ERA. The reason why these things matter is because the Rockies are 5th in team batting in the league and 3rd in the NL, which is all I need to say regarding their offense. Not to mention, the Rockies’ really like hitting rightys and they do it very well. As far as our pitching match-up against their “batters” if that’s what you want to call them, I like it a lot. We have Marquez who all we need him to be is decent since our hitting match-up is so good against the Padres’ starter. If he can hold the Padres to no more than 3 or 4 I see this being an easy win. Marquez is 6-4 so far. (3-2 split both away and at home). Marquez in similar situations has posted a 4.68 ERA which is better than what we just looked at from Perdomo. Additionally, the Rockies are very sound defensively. They rank 3rd in all of MLB and 2nd in the NL in team defense. All these things, combined with the Padres being the WORST, and I mean DEAD LAST in team batting this year, really makes me feel like this is the best spot for the Rockies to start their 2H home opener seeing they face a more difficult match-ups the following two match-ups against Lamet and Richard. Best of luck on this MLB Play Of The Day.