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WRITE-UP(S) 08/07/2017

I DON’T UNDERSTAND THIS LINE WHATSOEVER. CUBS ARE CRUSHING OFF OF LEFTIES AND COMING OFF A SERIES LOSS AND STRAIGHT UP LOSS AGAINST THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS, THE CUBBIES WILL BE LOOKING TO GET SOMETHING GOING.

PICK: 1ST 5 INNINGS CUBS TEAM TOTAL OVER 2 (-145) 25*

BREAKDOWN: CUBS JUST BATTLED AGAINST THE GREAT PITCHING STAFF OF THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS. THEY HIT THE ROAD TO FACE THE TERRIBLE SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS WHO ARE OFF OF A SU & SERIES WIN OF THE ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS. THE GIANTS HAVE LEFTY MATT MOORE ON THE MOUND FOR THEM AND I THINK ITS A TERRIBLE SPOT. MATT MOORE IS GARBAGE AND THIS BALL PARK IS MOST CERTAINLY A HITTERS BALL PARK. CUBS ARE DESTROYING LEFTIES AND ARE TOP 5 IN ALMOST EVERY MAJOR HITTING STAT AS A TEAM. THEIR 3RD HIGHEST OPS IS WHAT IS GOING TO DO MATT MOORE IN EARLY AND OFTEN. I SEE 4-5 RUNS MINIMUM IN THE FIRST 5 ALONE.

PREDICTION THROUGH FIRST 5: CUBS 5 – GIANTS 2

I THINK THE CUBS ROLL TONIGHT BUT DON’T RECOMMEND YOU LAY THE JUICE SO LETS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SUCH A LOW 1ST 5 LINE.

BEST, VV.

WRITE-UP(S) 08/03/2017

Welcome back Clients! It’s been a while since we had a play worth a write-up, and it’s a +money dog! I feel like we are getting excellent value in this play and I will have the details for a 7 team 1u (+4080) parlay that kicks off tonight as well. Without further ado, lets get this thing rolling.

Winning Pick: Texas Rangers ML (+118) 

Breakdown: The Texas Rangers are on the road tonight and I personally feel they shouldn’t be the dog in this one. Lets do a few statistical comparisons between Texas and their opponents, the Minnesota Twins. In night games, Texas is 6th in the league overall in ESPN’s ‘team batting’ statistics, where Minnesota is 28th. Their slugging percentage in the same situations are good for 14th in the league at .427 opposed to Minnesota’s .406 slugging %, good for 23rd in baseball. Texas is also 6th in all of baseball in Base on Balls in night games, where as Minnesota is 22nd (a +40 margin for our Rangers). In these same ‘night game’ situations, Texas is 5th in Stolen bases and Minnesota is 18th (+19 margin). One stat in particular that really jumps out at me in these situations is each team’s extra base hits. Texas is 6th with 245, and Minnesota is 30th (dead last) with only 182. Texas is just an all around much better hitting ball club and I think we have a good match-up against Meija who is just 4-4 in his Career with a 4.17 ERA.  At home he actually gets worse with a 2-3 record & a 4.91 ERA. In those home starts. teams are hitting .286 with more than 50% of his hits given up, going for runs. He also posts a very unimpressive 2-1 Strikeout to Walk ratio which is not good if you consider Texas’ lineup is filled with batters who can get on base via WALK. I just don’t think he is in a good spot against this dangerous Texas lineup. As for us, and the ONLY reason I think we are the dog tonight is because our pitcher A.J. Griffin is pitching his first game coming off a stint on the DL. I’m not worried though as he has looked good in some warm-up games. He should be ready to go and a healthy A.J. Griffin is better than a healthy Adalberto Meija any day of the weak (to me at least). Griffin has been a stellar started since his rookie season where he posted a 7-1 record and a 3.06 ERA with the A’s. He has a career record of 32-17 and a 4.19 ERA to go along with those numbers. He has been better on the road this year than at home which works nicely for us, as his ERA is a full 2.65 points better in Road starts. On the road, opponents are hitting .233 and he has a very solid 1.11 WHIP (which shows he doesn’t give up a lot of base runners). Griffin has also been much better on grass than on turf this year, and tonight should be no different on the Kentucky Bluegrass at Target Field. My feeling is we have the better lineup with the better pitcher tonight. I honestly think we should be a minimum of a (-125) favorite, and so I will take the dog (+118) value.

Prediction: Texas Rangers 8 – Minnesota Twins 5

7 Team Parlay Screenshot Has Been Sent To Clients. No need for a write up. Lets not jinx this one by sharing it with everyone else.

Best, VV.

TRENDS FOR THIS GAME:

SINCE 2012, RANGERS ARE 257-228 FOLLOWING A WIN (53% win rate)

SINCE 2012, TWINS ARE 177-216 FOLLOWING A WIN (45% win rate). Worst % in MLB

SINCE 2012, RANGERS HAVE THE 2nd BEST WIN % AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

SINCE 2012, TWINS HAVE THE 2nd WORST WIN % AS A HOME FAVORITE

SINCE 2012, RANGERS ARE 5th IN WIN % OFF OF NO REST (53.6% WIN)

SINCE 2012, TWINS ARE WORST IN MLB IN WIN % OFF OF NO REST (43.4% WIN)

SINCE 2012, RANGERS HAVE 3rd BEST WIN % ON THE ROAD (50.6%)

SINCE 2012, TWINS ARE LAST IN WIN % AT HOME (42.9%)

 

WRITE-UP(S) 07/25/2017

Clients, it has been a great run and I am not looking to end it anytime soon. We continued our recent success by cashing all three ‘System Plays’ and hit our 20* MLB Pick of The Day easily with the Diamondbacks -1.5 in an 8 run route. I don’t have a single ‘System Play’ for today as the numbers just weren’t looking strong. However, I have had my eye on a certain pitcher for a while waiting for the right situation and opportunity; Needless to say it has produced us a top-rated 25* MLB Game Of The Week that I believe WILL cash soundly.

Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-118) with Madison Bumgarner (Listed) and James Taillon as (Action) meaning not listed. Risking 29.5 units to win 25 units ***MLB PLAY OF THE WEEK***

Breakdown: I have always been of tailing Madison Bumgarner at home. I never like playing on the road just because there are certain teams you don’t play on the road, the Giants for me, are that team. But here they are at AT&T park in front of their home crowd that is ALWAYS electric, proven by the fact that they most recently had the longest streak in National League history of having consecutive 530 SELL OUT crowds, a streak that lasted from October 1, 2010 until July 9, 2017. With the Giant’s ace and really their only consistent pitcher over the years to be taking the mound tonight, I believe it will be a loud and rowdy crowd for our home favorites.

Defensively, as mentioned, we have MadBum taking the mound. He is still win-less this year with a record of 0-4 and a 3.57 ERA. These numbers don’t scare me as MadBum has a career record of 100-71 and an even 3.00 ERA throughout that span. He has posted a 48-32 record at home (60% win rate) to go along with a 2.78 ER,  9.3Ks per 9innings and opponents hitting .226 in these situations. Bumgarner has also been stronger in the 2nd Half of the Season than the 1st Half as evident by the fact that his: Strikeouts per walk, Strikeouts per 9 innings, Batting Average Against, ERA, Win Percentage, and OBP numbers are all better in the latter half of the season. MadBum will be backed by a team that is Top 10 (number 9) in Major League Baseball in limiting the amount of errors they have had all season. Madison’s only problem has been giving up the long ball as he has allowed 7 runs in just over 13 innings (all by way of home run). This shouldn’t be a problem for him tonight though, as the Pirates are second to last in all of baseball in terms of the amount of home runs they have had this season.

Offensively, we have a decent match-up with James Tallion from the Pirates. He hasn’t been able to pitch deep into games though, as he has failed to complete 6 innings in all three of his starts this month, and he struggles slightly having to use 116 pitches to get through just 5 and 1/3 innings. Of his last 5 outings he has only reached the 7th inning once and in 4 of those 5 games was used for more than 100 pitches. For a young guy, I think his arm will be showing some signs of fatigue and the hungry Giant’s batters will look to catch fire. Despite the Giant’s offensive struggles this season, they will be in the hitter friendly confines of their home stadium and I do believe with MadBum taking the mound, the Giants will be looking to catch fire. Vegas must believe so as well, as the Giants are the favorites in a game I thought they might be the under dog in considering how good the Pirates have been playing. I think the public will be all over the Pirates at plus-money based on that statement I just issued, but I think Vegas is comfortable having the Giants as a favorite to bring in more money on the the Pirates and straight rake in that cash!

Prediction: San Francisco Giants 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates 4.

I think Bumgarner turns in 7 solid innings only allowing 2 Earned Runs and Ks a minimum of 6 batters. Giants should be leading 6-2 by that point as I do believe their bats will get it going, and their relievers come in and they will concede a couple of runs late but the Giants will respond off of a solo homer in the 8th to make it 7-4 and solidify the win, putting an end to the Pirates last second efforts.

 

WRITE-UP(S) 07/24/2017

Congratulation Client’s and trial members as we hit our 25* Soccer Play Of The Year yesterday to go along with our 20* MLB Play Of The Day winner. I look to continue that success and start us out on the right foot with another 20* MLB BOMB tonight. For the winner along with the breakdown, just continue reading. I’ll be waiting at the cashier to congratulate you tomorrow.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line

Breakdown: I always love a good narrative, and this game is no different. J.D. Martinez will be starting in his first home game since being traded to the Diamondbacks. His first game with them didn’t go expected when they had a showdown with the Cincinnati Reds and was hit on the knuckle by a pitch in his first at-bat and had to leave the game. Needless to say, after watching his batting practice this afternoon, I don’t think that hand will be an issue hitting or fielding. Another thing we saw happen in the very same game Martinez was injured, a not so elite performance from our guy tonight, Zack Grienke.

I have always loved tailing a team when Grienke is on the mound and I wasn’t too shy to do so last time. Although, in the last outing we got burned as Martinez’s early dismissal sucked the energy out of the  Diamondback’s offense and instead gave the Reds some hope. That hope sparked a good offensive performance from the Reds as they were able to get a lead off base runner in every inning Zack pitched. Those hits, mixed with insufficient run support for Grienke, and it wasn’t the result we wanted. I see a different story tonight. Grienke will be back in his home ball park where his numbers are immensely better (9-0 2.41 ERA @Home vs 2-4 3.75 ERA on the road).  To pair with those excellent Home numbers for Zack, he also seems to prefer night games vs day games as he has posted a 2.72 ERA in night games (a full 2 runs better than his day game numbers). Opponents are only hitting a .192 Average against him when he is in Arizona, and its worth noting that despite Grienke’s poor outing last time, only lasting 5 innings, he is still in the top 5 in the National League in ERA and is averaging about 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. One thing I really like about Grienke is his composure. With runners on both 2nd and 3rd, he has still maintained a 0.00 ERA more than halfway through the season (in part because he doesn’t get himself in those situations, and when he does, he works efficiently to get himself out of them). The Braves are a team I always look to fade on the road, so I am glad we get such a good pitcher on the mound for us backed by a stout lineup, something I can’t say about Atlanta. The Atlanta Braves are 18th in the league in ‘team batting’, and they really don’t hit rightys well (which Grineke is). Against right handed pitchers, the Braves have the 2nd worst strikeout percentage at 22.7% of at-bats resulting in a K, which is never a good equation with a strikeout artist in Zack Grienke. The Braves are also bottom 5 in the MLB in terms of Base on Balls, so with a high strikeout rate and a low amount of base on balls, the Atlanta Braves will really have to earn each and every hit/run.

Our offense shouldn’t have any problems tonight folks. Robert Allen Dickey (yes, R.A. Dickey) is on the mound for the Atlanta Braves who is win less since June 24th (exactly one month ago). The knuckle-ball specialist is now 42 years old and is lucky his knuckle ball has been decent from him because his other pitches are HORRID. Dickey throws 86.4% knuckle-balls/12.95% fastballs and then will very rarely throw a curve-ball but has one if needed, that he throws at about a 1% rate. The average pitcher throws about 52% fastballs and a mixture of other pitches like curves, change-ups, sliders, etc. This is where Dickey’s approach is flawed. I understand the movement on the knuckle pitch is very strong, but when you throw that pitch over 86% of the time, it allows hitters to not even worry about timing the fastball and instead they can get the timing of the knuckle-ball down. Once you get the timing down, it is all about making contact and putting the ball in play. I have never backed Dickey in my life and I don’t think I ever will. If you want my very strong opinion on him, I don’t think he should be a Major League pitcher anymore. His knuckler isn’t what it used to be, he needs to retire or go to the bullpen and be a closer. Rant over, back to the statistics and facts. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 6th in all of baseball in terms of ‘team hitting’ statistics overall, good for 4th in the National League. They have good (low) strike-out rates against right handed pitcheds and a top 5 on base percentage in the same situations (these are all numbers without the addition of J.D. Martinez). I think the new bat with Martinez and him making his first home start will give this team the extra juice to beat the Braves handily, much like the Indians did for us yesterday.

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 6 – Braves 2

Things to consider for tonight’s game:

There was a study done a couple years ago that showed R.A. Dickey’s Knuckle-ball performs better with a closed dome opposed to an open dome or non-dome stadium. Tonight’s ball park will be all sunny skies with a slight wind as the Diamondbacks will have their roof open. Not ideal conditions for a Dickey special.

Diamondbacks have the 2nd best Home win % in the National League, only behind the 1st place Dodgers.

 

 

WRITE UP(S) 07/23/2017

Clients, lets get right to it on why the Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+105) is going to be our MASSIVE 20* MLB POD.

Quite Simple Breakdown Here:

Kluber is a very dominant strikeout pitcher who is still looking for his first win of July after receiving a loss to the Padres on July 4th and two no decisions against the Tigers and A’s in his following starts. So far this month, Kluber has a 2.22 ERA and has had a 2.86 ERA all season (good for 2nd in AL/ 5th in MLB). Kluber also seems to fair well during Home games (2.54 ERA) and Day Games (2.43 ERA). Kluber does very well of limiting the long ball as he is top 5 in the AL in Home runs per 9 innings (less than 1 per 9 innings). He is also 3rd in the AL in Ks per BOB at just over 5.5 punch outs per walk. As we dig deeper we find more impressive and compelling arguments for Kluber, such as the fact that he is second in the entire league in shutouts, only behind Ervin Santana who has one more than him (3). He only gives up about 6.5 hits per 9 (good for second in the AL), along with his impressive 12.07 strikeouts per 9 innings (good for third in all of baseball). Toronto also has the ability to hurt themselves as they have two guys  in the top 10 in ‘Double Plays Grounded Into’ including the league leading 17 from Kendrys Morales. One thing some may point out is the fact that Jose Bautista is second in base on balls, but I think that has more to do with being pitched around opposed to him earning those walks because he is also top 10 in strikeouts. Kluber will also have a good defense behind him as the Cleveland Indians are top 10 in team fielding statistics overall, and 4th in the American League. The Blue Jays as a team haven’t met Kluber yet, which is always an edge for the pitcher, so I expect everything to be working in our favor, as far as the pitching match up is concerned. 

Now as far as our hitting match-up is concerned, official lineups aren’t out yet as this is an early line we are jumping on. What we can look at, though, is team stats and the opposing pitcher: J.A. Happ. Happ has a 3.55 ERA this year, and a lifetime 3.96 ERA. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but certainly aren’t strong. They only get worse from here. Happ’s career numbers on the road aren’t impressive: 4.23 ERA/ .256 Batt Avg/ .321 OBP/ .422 SLG. These aren’t encouraging numbers for the lefty considering the Cleveland Indians are ranked second in baseball at hitting off of left handed pitchers. They are putting up impressive numbers against lefties such as their league leading .272 Average, and are top 5 in each of their following categories: OBP/OPS/HomeRun%/BaseOnBalls%/Strikeout%. The Indians have two top 10 guys in terms of Base On Balls (Ramirez and Encarnacion), Ramirez also has provided the Indians with a top bat in the AL as he has been top 5 in AVG/RBIs/SLG% halfway through the season. I think it is also worth noting that the Toronto Blue Jays have been mediocre at best in terms of defense, as they fall below the middle of the pack, ranked at the #21 spot in the league. I like this spot a lot for the Indians and think we are getting great value. Look for the Indians to build off of their 13-3 win that opened this series and the Lindor walk off homer that won the game for them last night. Cleveland will be looking to sweep with their Ace (a top 4 or 5 arm in all of baseball) and Toronto will be caught looking ahead as they just want to end this road trip and get home tomorrow night to face the A’s.

A few trends that are also working for us:

  • Toronto has only won 39% of games as a road underdog this season.
  • Since 2016 the Indians are in the Top 5 in winning % following a win.
  • In this series, the Indians have outscored the Blue Jays by an average of 5.5 Runs Per Game, and have out hit the Blue Jays by an average of 4.5 hits per game. 

Kluber (Listed) vs Happ (Listed) Cleveland Indians RL -1.5 (+105) 20*

WRITE-UP(S) 07/21/2017

Clients, lets keep this one short and simple because we have had some bad luck as of late, and I believe this 20* Play Of The Week is a gem. 20* POW’s are hitting at over a 78% rate YTD, this will only increase that rate.

20* Winner: Texas Rangers ML (-124) Yu Darvish (Listed,) Alex Cobb (Action)

Breakdown: On the mound for us tonight is Ranger’s #1 arm in Yu Darvish. Although he hasn’t quite returned to what most remember him by when he placed 2nd in the Cy Young race in 2013, I’ve seen a lot of good things from him. His last start against Kansas City, he only allowed 2 Earned Runs through 6 and two thirds. Also worth mentioning, is Darvish’s career numbers against the Rays: 4-0 in 5 starts with a 1.09 ERA and is averaging about 11K’s per 9 innings in those 5 contests. I’m not one to root for injuries but we were blessed in this one because as we all know, Colby Rasmus (one of the Ray’s best fielders and bats) has stepped away from baseball for a bit and won’t be back anytime soon. The reason I bring that up is because Rasmus has had Darvish’s number ever since they first faced off. Rasmus has posted a .471 average/1.350 OPS/.526 OBP, his batting average and OPS against Darvish have all been career highs for Rasmus out of all qualified pitchers he has faced. If there were one guy I would not want to be in the opposing line up, it’s that guy, and thankfully for us, he isn’t. Another ‘throw in’ statistic to think about is the fact that the Ranger’s defense has been fairly solid all year as they are a Top 10 team as far as team fielding is concerned.

Our hitting match-up isn’t bad either. The Texas lineup is 8th in baseball in overall ‘Team Batting’ statistics (3rd in the AL). We have two top 10 home run hitters in our line up with #8 Gallo and #9 Napoli, but the great thing is that Napoli hits #5 and Gallo is the #9 which just shows how great of an overall hitting ball club this is. Alex Cobb, the pitcher for the Rays tonight has had a solid year thus far but he relies on an underwhelming fastball with pin point precision. If his control is off though, he is liable to give up walks, and runs at a big pace.

Prediction: Texas Rangers 7 – Tampa Bay Rays 2

WRITE-UP(S) 07/19/2017

Clients, tonight’s 15* MAX PLAY OF THE DAY has been confirmed and we are on the Arizona Diamondbacks. I tried to grab the line at -155 but got confirmation late and got the (-161) line. That won’t stop me from jumping all over this one, and you will see why if you continue reading.

Breakdown: I have been high on the Diamondbacks all year. They have one of the most underrated pitching staffs in the game, top to bottom, and their ace, Zack Greinke will be on the mound for us in this one. Greinke is 11-4 so far, with an ERA of  2.86. He is allowing opponents to hit a .216 AVG. Even when he falls behind in the count, he only is allowing a .250 AVG and when he is able to work ahead in the count the opponent’s batting average drops to .174. Elite, top 5 stuff. Lefties are hitting .206 and right handed hitters are hitting .226 so he can definitely handle batters on either side of the plate. Greinke is coming off of a good June (3-1, with a 2.70 ERA and opponents hitting .241 against him), but it doesn’t stop there as Zack has been able to elevate his game even higher so far in July as he has built a 2-0 record in two games, while allowing batters to hit .147 and giving up just a 1.29 ERA. I don’t expect anything different from him in this one as Cincinnati is a middle of the back kind of team offensively. They have a speedy lead off guy in Billy Hamilton who leads the league in stolen bases, but other than that, their team speed is mediocre/average at best. If we keep Hamilton off the bases, they don’t have any real threats speed wise. Which should keep the Reds’ run total to a minimum. Not to mention the Dbacks just added J.D. Martinez from the Tigers in the outfield and will really solidify the outer three as we will have speedy guys with strong arms to keep extra base hits down as well (Pollock, Peralta, Martinez), and our infield is even better with Lamb, Goldschmidt, and Owings to help us turn some double plays when need be and keep those ground balls from getting into the outfield. As a side note, we saw Ray struggle on the mound but he was still able to hold the Reds to just two runs, which isn’t a good sign for the Reds considering Grienke is on a tear recently and has been solid all year with no real terrible performances.

As far as our hitting match-up, I think we have a really good one. The Diamondbacks just hung 11 for us last night, and I think they can have a pretty similar outing tonight. On the mound for the Reds is Tim Adleman. Adleman doesn’t have overpowering stuff, fastball velocity is right around 90MPH, and his control has been an issue. At home he is 4-3, but has allowed opponents to pile up a 5.09 ERA in those same games. So far in July, Adleman is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA and opponents are hitting .311 off of him! Not to mention, since the All Star Break, he has gone 0-1, with a 10.38 ERA and opponents are hitting .350. He gave up 3 homers in his last time out, and when ahead in the count he often struggled to punch people out as we saw when he walked Bryce Harper by throwing 4 straight balls after getting ahead 0-2. As stated before, the Diamondbacks hung 11 last night and just made their offense even better with the addition of J.D. I don’t see this game playing out any other way for a hungry team like the Diamondbacks with a powerful lineup that has solid team speed, and an ace on the mound. My official prediction for this game is Diamondbacks 8 – Reds 3!

Best, VV.